Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Do you think that China can save the global economy?

If you ask the Chinese themselves they are very reluctant to even think they can by themselves act as a global leader to pull everyone out of this. It is not because their size as a country and as an economic powerhouse doesn't allow them to do that but because they either don't want to or they don't have the expertise to play that role.

A shift of economic power is happening right now as Western economies are bleeding but that does not guarantee that the power to lead and save the world is also changing hands. Europe and the US still have the infrastructure and talent to recover and keep growing again.

Actually I have to agree that to the extent China is dependent for its export-led economic growth on the West, unless it works on fixing its own problems, it will slow down too.

Notice one more thing. I am not an economist but this observation puzzles me. The world economy is doing well on the surface and the US dollar is very weak. The world plunges into a crisis and the US dollar strengthens because suddenly the world has less faith in other economies pulling this through better than the US.

Stock markets are down because they operate short-term. If you are interested in where people keep their faith in the ability of national economies to pull this through looking at exchange rates is more insightful I think.

Anyone checked the value of the Russian Rouble or those of other emerging economies? It's on a free-fall...

http://www.thinkaloo.com

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